Leaders-Laggards

The financials sector has responded favorably to the recent broad move higher in interest rates, as it often has in the past. The ECB’s far overdue pivot to hawkishness certainly changes the narrative for European banks. The two-month leadership run for consumer staples looks like it might be ending. I think things could get a little quiet for bonds over the next month until we get closer to the Fed’s March meeting.

Investors may have turned to tech and energy last week, but the momentum for consumer staples hasn’t broken yet. Real estate continues to bounce around as the market figures out how hawkish the Fed might get. The utilities sector continues to signal near-term risk-off conditions even after last week’s big Friday comeback for risk assets.

It’s not quite as steep as the one in early 2000, but the latest stretch of outperformance for this sector sure looks pretty similar. REITs outperformed along with other defensive sectors last week, but there still hasn’t been much momentum in either direction for a while. Healthcare rallied again as investors take risk off the table, but there’s still a lot of volatility here relative to the broader market.