The 2027 Bond Wall Is a Refinancing Test, Not a Date on a Calendar
New issuance can make the maturity schedule look safer while quietly transferring the problem into coupons, covenants, and weaker borrowers
The $15 Billion BDC at a 19% Discount That the Market Has Not Figured Out Yet
OBDC yields 10.8% and trades at a 19% discount to NAV of $14.26. Moody's Baa2 rated, 27bps annual net loss rate since 2016 inception, 110% base dividend coverage. The scale paradox: is a $15B BDC at a 19% discount a value play or a value trap?
Signal Flip Watch: What Utilities Are Telling Us About Risk
I've found that the market rarely warns you in the language you're expecting. Right now the headlines say inflation is moderating and growth is fine --- and yet core CPI ticked higher to 2.90%, energy inflation accelerated to 23.50%, and utilities, the most rate-sensitive and defensive sector in...
The Blissfully Unaware Market: Why The Yen Is The Only Chart That Matters
Equity volatility is compressed to multi-year lows while the funding currency of the global carry trade is signaling a regime change. The yen is not a currency story. It is a leverage-in-the-system story that ends with a coordinated deleveraging event.
The SEC's 10-Q To 10-S Proposal
The Securities and Exchange Commission proposed in Release
Crash Stocks To Save Bonds: The Doctrine Bessent Won't Name
The Treasury's real reaction function is not GDP or unemployment. It is the term premium on the 10-year. If long yields spike into an auction cycle, the administration will tolerate equity drawdowns rather than let the bond market break.
The Appliance Mandate Rescission
On 7/2/2026, the U.S. Department of Energy issued a Notice of
The Godzilla Margin Call: Why Japan Owns The US Bond Market Now
Japan is not a passive holder of US Treasuries. Japan is the marginal setter of long-end yields, and the reverse carry trade unwind is a forced-selling mechanism that policymakers cannot stop with rate cuts or QE.
Deregulation In Motion: The 702-Rule Rollback
On 7/3/2026, the White House announced a plan to eliminate up to 702
The World's Cheapest Money Just Got More Expensive
Matthew Tuttle on the Yen carry trade after Japan's policy rate hit 1% -- cross-posted from The H.E.A.T. Formula.
The 11% Yield That Lends To The Companies Building The AI Era
Hercules Capital pays $0.47 a quarter from a 12.8% yielding book of venture loans to software and biotech startups, with 0.1% non-accruals and a 43% premium to net asset value
Buying AI's Landlords At A Fair Price, With An 81% Asterisk
Nuveen's renamed real estate income fund pays close to 8.9%, owns roughly 8% in the data center REITs powering the AI buildout, and funds four fifths of that payout with return of capital