Federal interest just passed defense. Debt-to-GDP exceeded the WWII peak in peacetime. The foreign buyer base is disassembling. And a democratic socialist just took NYC. These are not separate stories. They are the same story, upstream and downstream.
Nonfinancial commercial paper hit a record $397.2 billion on May 6, 2026, then fell to $342.1 billion by July 29. A 13.9 percent 12-week contraction, in the 7th percentile since 2001. Last two times CP moved this way: 2007 and 2019. Corporate treasurers were already gone.
Today at 12 PM ET. Live with Hervé Van Caloen. 1 hour CFP CE Credit. Registration closes when we start.
Nuveen's AMT-Free Municipal Credit Income Fund (NVG) offers some of the best tax math in the closed-end fund universe and the thinnest margin of safety it has had in years
Live tomorrow, Friday July 31 at 12 PM ET. Michael Gayed and Hervé Van Caloen on international equity strategy, Latin America, and the global supply chain. CFP CE Credit Eligible. Register free.
Starts in 1 hour. Live at 2:30 PM ET with Seth Cogswell of Running Oak Capital. 1 CFP CE Credit Approved.
Live at 2:30 PM ET with Seth Cogswell of Running Oak Capital. The involuntary Anti-AI trade, the Grand Illusion of hyperscaler earnings, and why 14 months of factor nonsense may be sow time. 1 CFP CE Credit Approved.
Direct lending has quietly become the private-credit engine most portfolios lean on. Here is what changed and why it matters for allocators.
The CBOE SKEW index closed at 150 on July 22, its 96th percentile reading since 1990, while the VIX sat near 16 — a divergence, not a coincidence.
Federal net interest hit $970 billion in fiscal 2025 — 18.5% of federal receipts, the highest share since the data begins in 1940 and above the 1991 peak.
The aggregate delinquency rate on commercial real estate loans at all commercial banks sits near 1.56% as of the first quarter of 2026 — close to a cycle low, and the number consensus points to when it says CRE risk is contained.
The consensus says dollar liquidity is abundant. The plumbing says otherwise. The JPY basis is double its post-COVID average, foreign central banks are rebuilding buffers at the Fed, and FIMA repo drew twice after years of dormancy. The shortage builds in the basis before it breaks open.