The BLS diffusion index printed 54.4 in June 2026, identical to the full-year 2007 average. Payroll breadth spent nine of twelve months of 2025 below 50. One industry, health care, is generating 86 percent of net US job growth. Every one of those facts is public. Almost nobody is quoting them.
Central banks bought 243.7 tonnes of gold in Q1 2026, only about 16 tonnes were officially reported. Real yields at 2.44 percent sit at 2008 highs while gold prints records. The old model of gold as anti-real-yield has stopped working. The buyers are not who the equity crowd thinks.
Anti-AI with Seth Cogswell. Live 2 PM ET. 1 CFP CE Credit.
Live at 2 PM ET. Efficient Growth is trading like the involuntary Anti-AI portfolio. Factor dispersion at a decade-plus high. 1 CFP CE Credit.
Tomorrow at 2 PM ET. Seth Cogswell of Running Oak Capital on the Anti-AI trade, the Grand Illusion, and factor dispersion at a decade-plus high. 1 CFP CE Credit.
Live tomorrow with Seth Cogswell, Running Oak Capital. Factor dispersion is at a decade-plus wide. Twenty of the last 38 trading days saw 110bps+ differentials. High Vol is beating Low Vol 131% to 12%. This is not a thesis. It is what the market is already doing.
Standing Repo Facility takeup hit $31.5 billion on December 31, 2025. SOFR traded above IORB on 31 days in Q4 alone. The relief did not come from the backstop. The Fed stopped runoff December 1 and began buying $40 billion of bills a month December 12. Read the sequence, not the label.
Federal interest just passed defense. Debt-to-GDP exceeded the WWII peak in peacetime. The foreign buyer base is disassembling. And a democratic socialist just took NYC. These are not separate stories. They are the same story, upstream and downstream.
Nonfinancial commercial paper hit a record $397.2 billion on May 6, 2026, then fell to $342.1 billion by July 29. A 13.9 percent 12-week contraction, in the 7th percentile since 2001. Last two times CP moved this way: 2007 and 2019. Corporate treasurers were already gone.
Today at 12 PM ET. Live with Hervé Van Caloen. 1 hour CFP CE Credit. Registration closes when we start.
Nuveen's AMT-Free Municipal Credit Income Fund (NVG) offers some of the best tax math in the closed-end fund universe and the thinnest margin of safety it has had in years
Live tomorrow, Friday July 31 at 12 PM ET. Michael Gayed and Hervé Van Caloen on international equity strategy, Latin America, and the global supply chain. CFP CE Credit Eligible. Register free.