Starts in 1 Hour - Anti-AI: Why Efficient Growth Is Behaving Nothing Like the S&P 500 Right Now
Starts in 1 hour. Live at 2:30 PM ET with Seth Cogswell of Running Oak Capital. 1 CFP CE Credit Approved.
Today at 2:30 PM ET - Anti-AI: Why Efficient Growth Is Behaving Nothing Like the S&P 500 Right Now
Live at 2:30 PM ET with Seth Cogswell of Running Oak Capital. The involuntary Anti-AI trade, the Grand Illusion of hyperscaler earnings, and why 14 months of factor nonsense may be sow time. 1 CFP CE Credit Approved.
The Gold Standard of Direct Lending
Direct lending has quietly become the private-credit engine most portfolios lean on. Here is what changed and why it matters for allocators.
The Cheap Insurance Regime
The CBOE SKEW index closed at 150 on July 22, its 96th percentile reading since 1990, while the VIX sat near 16 — a divergence, not a coincidence.
The Independence Illusion
Federal net interest hit $970 billion in fiscal 2025 — 18.5% of federal receipts, the highest share since the data begins in 1940 and above the 1991 peak.
The Silent Loss
The aggregate delinquency rate on commercial real estate loans at all commercial banks sits near 1.56% as of the first quarter of 2026 — close to a cycle low, and the number consensus points to when it says CRE risk is contained.
The Quiet Dollar Shortage
The consensus says dollar liquidity is abundant. The plumbing says otherwise. The JPY basis is double its post-COVID average, foreign central banks are rebuilding buffers at the Fed, and FIMA repo drew twice after years of dormancy. The shortage builds in the basis before it breaks open.
The Sidelines Illusion
Money market fund balances peak after equity tops, not before. In 2008-2009 they peaked as stocks bottomed. The sidelines narrative reverses the direction of the arrow.
If The Federal Reserve Won't Cut, Turn Up The Volume. Introducing The Leveraged Version Of The Tech-Volatility Harvest.
TDAX applies a ~1.3× daily leveraged wrapper to TDAQ's Nasdaq-100 0DTE covered call engine, with weekly distributions. A look at the current volatility regime and why the setup fits this wrapper.
The Five-Stock Illusion
Why the 24.7% headline collapses to 16.8% without two names. Cap-weight breadth, sector-level earnings decay, and the concentration risk the composite is quietly hiding.
What Paid Subscribers Get (And Why It Matters)
For the next 3 days: 50% off your first year, plus everything paid subscribers get that free readers don't.
The Duration Ambush
Why long rates may not follow the Fed lower this time. Term-premium repricing, bill-heavy issuance, and volatile foreign demand — the exposures the consensus is quietly mispricing.