Corporate Bonds Yield 5.82%. Only 0.88 of It Pays for Credit Risk.
Investment-grade bonds yield 5.82%, but only 0.88 points is credit spread. Bond buyers are paid mostly for rates, not corporate risk.
The Fed Hiked in September. The Money Supply Grew the Fastest Since 2022.
M2 grew 5.71% from a year earlier in September, the fastest since May 2022, while bank reserves fell $128 billion in two weeks as the Treasury's cash account filled.
Oil Rose 13.6% in October. Gold Fell 6.5%. The Market Is Betting on the Central Banks.
Brent rose 13.6% in October. Gold fell 6.5%. Markets are pricing the Iran war as a central bank problem, and that has turned gold into a funding source.
The Nasdaq Just Had Its Worst Day Since June. This 7% Yielder Owns The Grid It Runs On
BUI pays 6.91% monthly from income and gains, not return of capital, while the AI trade wobbles. The catch: five years of flat price.
AMLP Pays 7.6% And Has Raised Its Payout 45% Since 2022. The Tax Bill Comes First
AMLP yields 7.6% on a payout that grew from $0.71 to $1.03 a quarter since 2022. The structure, the tax drag and the concentration explained.
A 14% Yield That Kept 80% Of The Nasdaq's Upside: Inside QQQI
QQQI pays a 14.28% distribution rate and captured 80% of QQQ's up months, but on Friday's 3.5% Nasdaq-100 drop it fell 3.29%.
Brazil Lost 20% in a Day. The Rest of Emerging Markets Barely Noticed.
Brazil's ETF fell 19.8% in a day after Lula's upset win. Emerging markets fell 0.31%. A crowded trade, a contained shock and the Bank of Japan next.
GDP Grew 3.4%. Real Income Fell. Americans Are Spending Their Savings.
Q3 GDP grew 3.4%, but real disposable income fell 0.27% in September and the saving rate dropped to 3.8%, its lowest since October 2022.
Junk Bonds Split in Two. CCC Spreads Are Wider Than April 2025.
CCC spreads hit 13.56% on Oct. 23, wider than the April 2025 shock, while BB barely moved. The junk market is no longer one market.
Hires, Quits and Layoffs Are All Below 2019. The Job Market Stopped Moving.
Quits are 18% below 2019, hiring 15% below and layoffs 17% below. Jobless claims are at 194,000. The labor market is not weak or strong. It is still.
Defensives Beat the S&P 500 by 8% in a Month. Eleven of 15 Times, a Drawdown Followed.
Utilities and staples both beat a flat S&P 500 by more than 7% in a month. In 11 of 15 prior cases an 8%+ drawdown followed within three months. Credit has not confirmed yet.
The Index Stopped Buying Itself. Now It Borrows to Build.
AI spenders are cutting buybacks and borrowing at record pace. Investment-grade spreads are at their widest since March. Why the marginal buyer of the largest stocks has changed and what credit is saying about the AI build.