No changes in the week’s risk signals despite some risk-off movement from both Treasuries and small-caps. The rise in large-cap and lumber prices coupled with the continued underperformance of utilities is still confirming an overall risk-on sentiment.
Speaking of Treasuries, not only are yields rising, but the overall curve is also steepening. The 30Y/10Y, 10Y/2Y and 10Y/3M spreads have all seen spikes in recent days. This feels like the higher inflation story starting to play out in real time.
The parabolic move in precious metals is beginning to look like a bit of an outlier in the sense that investors appear to be trying to catch the rally regardless of economic fundamentals. In the short-term, this move is looking overbought, but the backdrop of rising future inflation risk is still intact.