Weekly read on the JOJO.Index credit signal: credit-off for a third week, utilities up 10.28% vs. the S&P 500 in four weeks, and high yield spreads at a 12-month high of 348 bps.
Initial claims fell to 189,000 while Michigan sentiment sits below its 2008 low. Pay is trailing prices by almost a point, and that explains the gap.
The Fed's loan officer survey shows the first drop in business loan demand in over a year, while standards for larger firms stayed basically unchanged.
The saving rate fell to its lowest since October 2022 as real income dropped, and revolving credit jumped $16.3 billion in one month.
The copper to gold ratio is up 48% since its February low, and the 10-year yield rose 95 basis points with it. In October the ratio rose 7% while the 10-year fell 31 basis points.
November to April after a midterm election has been positive 19 of 19 times since 1950. When the Fed was hiking going in, gains were smaller and the dips along the way were deeper.
The chip index fell 7.2% on October 30, its third 7% drop of 2026. In 44 of 48 past cases since 1994, it traded lower within three months, even when it later recovered.
RSP returned 4.95% in October while SPY lost 0.91%, the second-widest monthly margin for equal weight since 2003. The market's leadership got wider.
Productivity rose 3.6% and labor costs fell in the third quarter, while the labor share of output hit 53.0%, the lowest on record.
The 3-month bill yields 4.18%, above the Fed's 4.00% ceiling. In 37 of 45 similar episodes since 1990, the Fed hiked within about three months.
Brent hit $138.21 in April and fell 17.6% in three sessions this week. The 5-year, 5-year forward inflation gauge stayed between 2.05% and 2.36%.
Power output set a record in September, up 9.6% in a year, yet electricity prices rose 4.4%, still ahead of overall inflation.